[picapp align=”center” wrap=”false” link=”term=New+York+Jets&iid=7613596″ src=”0/8/9/0/Mayor_Michael_Bloomberg_03b5.JPG?adImageId=9396499&imageId=7613596″ width=”380″ height=”248″ /]

The AFC Championship Game hits your televisions on Sunday. In perhaps what might be the biggest AFC Championship game mismatch at quarterback ever, Mark Sanchez and the Jets will attempt to slay the dragon that is Peyton Manning and his Indianapolis Colts for a trip to the Super Bowl.

Sunday, January 24 @ 3pm – #5 New York Jets at #1 Indianapolis Colts

The Skinny: This game brings to mind the AC/DC album titled Who Made Who. The Colts had an opportunity to not only push for an undefeated season but also crush New York’s playoff hopes in the process. Jim Caldwell and Bill Polian decided the Colts should phone it in and the result is New York’s first conference title game appearance since the Denver Broncos and John Elway stopped a veteran laden Jets club during the 1998 postseason. Thus, the Colts in part made the Jets postseason and now have an opportunity to reach the Super Bowl by going through them.

It’s a classic matchup of strength on strength when Revis Island pays a visit to Peyton Manning. The Jets feature the number one scoring defense in the NFL, a blitz-happy unit that can pressure the opposing offense into mistakes. On the other side of the football, the Jets must figure out a way to run the football and not have rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez hurt them in a crucial spot versus Indy’s stingy defense.

New York’s X-Factor: Blitzing Peyton Manning. Obviously, that is much easier said than done. It seems that blitzing Manning is a lost cause for defenses. As a recent Wall Street Journal article explained, Manning is deadly versus blitzing. During 2009, he has seen 149 blitzes and thrown 10 touchdown passes. Facing the blitz versus the Jets in Week 16, he went 9 of 14 for 103 yards.

Yet, the Jets aren’t likely to significantly change what they do defensively. After all, it’s why they are in this position. The key will be what Manning can generate away from Darrelle Revis. Reggie Wayne caught three for 33 in the first meeting but that wasn’t an entire game. We know the drill by now; Garcon, Collie, Clark, and Addai out of the backfield.

If they can’t get to him and most teams haven’t (only sacked 10 times this season), at the very least altering his timing and limiting those big plays downfield for Manning are important. You can’t give him the easy throws and the 20 yard plus passing plays. Make him work for his yardage and scores. No quickies. That will spell defeat.

[picapp align=”center” wrap=”false” link=”term=Curtis+Painter&iid=6032458″ src=”c/4/1/3/Indianapolis_Colts_2009_d86a.jpg?adImageId=9411954&imageId=6032458″ width=”380″ height=”253″ /]

Indy’s X-Factor: No Free Lunches. Sanchez and the Jets scored 29 points on the Colts back in Week 16 with large assists coming via a kick return for a score and Curtis Painter getting smoked. In fact, New York’s lone offensive touchdown did not come until the fourth quarter on a one yard run by Thomas Jones.

The Colts can’t give the Jets those type of easy scores. Considering that no rookie quarterback has ever advanced to the Super Bowl, Indy’s main goal defensively should be to make Sanchez beat them. The easiest way to do that is stopping the run, which versus New York’s stout line is not easy. Just ask San Diego’s Eric Weddle.

Ultimately though, Sanchez will be asked to make plays at some point. Last week at San Diego, he posted a passer rating of 60.1. If that happens again this week, the Jets will not win unless some crazy nonsense occurs.

Any scores that come outside of the game’s conventional framework protects Sanchez from having significant pressure on his shoulders. If the Jets can prevent him from shouldering the load, they’ll take it. Conversely, that is exactly what that fast Indy defense wants to see.

Synopsis: Do the Jets have a shot? Absolutely. They are playing to their strengths week after week: a stout running game and a tremendously stingy defense. Any honest Colts fan will admit that they didn’t play well last week versus Baltimore. Also, if you’re a Jets fan, here is your hope. Over the past two weeks, the Jets have a faced two one dimensional teams. Cincy can run it but can’t throw it. San Diego could throw it but can’t run it. They’ll play another one dimensional team this week in the Colts. While the Colts have their vaunted passing game, they have worst running game in the NFL (averaging just 3.5 yards per carry).

Strategically, how the Colts deal with the Jets defense is the whole key. Revis playing well in coverage is only a part of the puzzle for the Jets. If they get to Manning with pressure, he will make those mistakes that defined the earlier portion of his postseason career. In turn, holding Manning’s passing attack at bay will allow the Jets offense to pound away with Shonn Greene, Jones, and their bruising offensive line.

We’ve heard that plan of attack before though. Ultimately, the Colts are 15-0 when their starters play at full tilt this season. Furthermore, a rookie quarterback winning back to back road games in the playoffs including a conference championship game? No.

PREDICTION: COLTS 23, JETS 10