Earlier today, the Raiders made perhaps a grave error in judgment by packaging a 2012 first round pick and a conditional 2013 second round pick for forgotten Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer.

Wow.

The true gem of the trade is attached to Oakland’s playoff finish next season. If the Raiders reach the AFC Championship game in either of the next two seasons, Cincinnati will receive Oakland’s ’13 first round pick instead.

While an AFC title game appearance is a bit far-fetched, even giving up a first and second round pick for Palmer is an illogical maneuver.

As of October 18, 2011, only the following quarterbacks should command first-round draft pick value in a trade:

• Sam Bradford
• Tom Brady
• Drew Brees
• Josh Freeman
• Cam Newton
• Philip Rivers
• Aaron Rodgers
• Ben Roethlisberger
• Matt Ryan
• Matthew Stafford
• Michael Vick

While I was a Radio/TV/Film major in college, math wasn’t necessarily my thing but by my calculations, that is only 11 quarterbacks who should be on the list based off of previous accomplishments or career ceiling. Obviously, if Peyton Manning was functional, he would make 12.

Ok, let’s extrapolate this to the next step. Let’s say Oakland reaches an AFC title game and that ’13 second rounder becomes a first. How many current quarterbacks would conceivably be worth two first-rounders?

Aaron Rodgers.

That’s it.

There is an argument to be made for a few guys on the list (Newton, Brady) for different reasons but Rodgers, 27, is the best player in the sport at the moment.

Carson Palmer is not the best player in the sport or the best quarterback in the Bay Area (I’d go with Jason Campbell and Alex Smith over Palmer at this point). Yet, in an attempt to heal the on-the-field wound of Campbell’s broken collarbone that will sideline him for possibly the rest of the season and keep their playoff hopes intact, Oakland panicked.

Trading Palmer for a second or higher round pick would have been a far different issue. Trading potentially two number ones for Palmer is a clear and concise statement by Oakland:

“Carson Palmer is our quarterback this year, and for many beyond.”

The 31-year-old ex-Bengal has not been the same quarterback since his ill-fated knee injury during the 2005 AFC playoffs.

In fact, take a look at Campbell’s and Carson’s win-loss record since ’06 (Campbell’s rookie season and the season following Palmer’s major knee injury):

That’s right kids. Despite changing offensive coordinators on nearly an annual basis, Campbell has a better winning percentage.

Campbell’s advantage should be the secondary point when viewing these numbers. The real central idea here is that Oakland gave away two high end picks for a guy who has won 42 percent of his 68 starts since 2006.

While he’ll have the NFL’s leading rusher in Oakland (Darren McFadden), the Raiders put a premium on throwing downfield; something Palmer may not be able to do with great frequency based off his recent days in Cincinnati.

The only thing that makes sense in this deal? Raiders head coach Hue Jackson.

Palmer and Jackson share the same agent, David Dunn.

Coincidence? Probably not.

I’m guessing somehow Jackson thought it was a better idea to go with a quarterback that was easy access to the Raiders rather than an unknown commodity.

Landing Kyle Orton from Denver or the once-useful Vince Young from Philadelphia would have proved difficult to land but may be better short-term options.

I liked the Raiders to reach the playoffs (still do) but the Palmer arrival could stagger Oakland’s growth in the future.

Placing your silver and black eggs in the basket of a soon-to-be 32-year-old quarterback that never won a playoff game and is a few years removed from a torn ACL, MCL, dislocated kneecap, and Tommy John surgery makes little sense.

Congratulations, Mike Brown.

You won the Battle of Carson Palmer.